This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Brazil. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will try to receive my 3rd chair this week to maximum it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a small number of entries at the $30k decoration, and then I will probably have a few shots at the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Raoni Barcelos — $9,600
Barcelos is your cash game play for me . On the gambling line he’s currently -1100 and he is -206 to win ITD. He is additionally +110 to win in round 1. He is my favorite play on the plank, the sole real issue is being able to afford him. For cash games, I will for sure match him in. For GPPs it will be harder to have 6 wins paying for his huge salary, but I enjoy him there as well. I just won’t make it a priority to get him into those tournament lineups, but cash I want that -1100 on my team to get a safe win.
GPP play of the week — Ryan Spann — $8,800
This is a battle I like to target. My preferred play is Spann however Little Nog is in play as well. The best thing for FDGTD is -280 and that I believe Spann could win via KO or sub, and it might be 1st round as well. I think he can compete with the $9k fighters and that he is a guy that kicks off them the 1st place lineup. Little Nog is the better fighter however and Spann does not have a fantastic chin himself, so that I really could see Nog winning through KO. I don’t think that’s probably, therefore that I won’t be thick on him, but he can make my player pool. Spann is a guy I think is in play in most formats and that I will attempt to be obese on him. It’s more of a grin on Small Nog at this time, but I don’t see this battle going all 3-rounds and I enjoy Spann to get the win.
Underdog play of the week — Alex Volkanovski — $7,800
On DraftKings, I expect Volkanovski to be very chalky and rightfully so. He’s my preferred play in this battle and his past scores pretty much make him a guy you can not fade if you’re MMEing. I really don’t see him using the ceiling that he did in his past struggles vs Aldo, but those numbers are difficult to ignore. His 6 UFC wins have every totaled over 100 DK points. From latest fight to his introduction, these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That is pretty amazing. I think he’s a good prospect of upsetting the legend here and possibly getting an end for another score. I don’t believe Aldo is a great matchup for him to demonstrate that 100+ point ceiling but at $7.8k we don’t require that lots of points. I believe IF he wins, he readily pays off that wages.
Fade of this week — Luana Carolina — $8,900
There is absolutely no way I am paying $8.9k for Carolina. She’s the fade of the week and whether or not it disturbs me afterward it disturbs me. I don’t see that being the case though even if she wins. I expect this struggle to keep standing and that I don’t watch her striking at a pace to pay off her price tag without getting a finish. I don’t think she gets that finish so even when she wins I believe she scores nearer to 75 DK points and in her wages which won’t end up on the optimal lineup. Even if I create 150 lineups this week I won’t get any vulnerability to Carolina.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 on this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I’m 76-45 to get +260.95 (+$26,095) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)