Can this get any simpler? Based on how Bleacher Report’s expert NFL analysts are faring against the spread this year, it certainly can not get much tougher.
Picking at every game, Brad Gagnon Gary Davenport and Brent Sobleski had another run in Week 12, falling their combined record to 251-259-18. Individually and as a crew, here is the damage through 12 months (last week’s records in parentheses):
1. Gary Davenport: 92-78-6 (7-8)
2. Brent Sobleski: 81-89-6 (7-8)
3. Brad Gagnon: 78-92-6 (5-10)
Consensus picks: 83-87-6 (7-8)
With December loomingwe asked longtime sports gambling advisor Dave Tuley if there might be some light at the end of the tube to the betting public or if the sportsbooks will continue to gain from bigger samples late in the season.
We were given a hope, but not sufficient to get removed by tuley.
“There was a time under a dozen years back where I had a bunch of years in a row where I simply killed it the next half of the year and in December,” he explained. “At the time, I felt like it was just the time of year once the good teams were overrated and the bad teams were underrated, and with parity exactly what it was, the underdogs were doing a lot better at that time.”
However, Tuley notes that neither the books nor the bettors have struck benefits in recent Decembers. “Just as bettors want to believe that we are getting smarter the more people see these teams play,” he said,”obviously the oddsmakers are seeing the same things we are, and they are adjusting and which makes it hard as well.”
But he believes it’s possible to pick out lines that have been exaggerated by streaks and/or slumps. In particular, he pointed in the 7.5-point distribute in favor of the New Orleans Saints in a road matchup with the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
With that line, oddsmakers are suggesting the Saints will be preferred by as many as 13 or 14 points if that game were in New Orleans, which will appear high considering that the Cowboys are riding a three-game winning series.
“That is [a reflection of] how the Saints have been playing,” Tuley said. “For the novels to balance their action, they must place it at the number.”
It is something to keep in mind as we enter the 2018 regular season’s final month. Any guidance helps, if you’ve been after us all year, although it might not save your season as a bettor.
Here is what Gagnon Davenport and Sobleski are thinking heading into the first slate in more than two months.
Read more: mlb-2019.com